The sky isn't falling just yet, but it may be wise to prepare the storm shed. Real estate analyst firm Clear Capital released new figures on Thursday suggesting that a double dip in housing prices is coming, but will not occur until at least spring 2011. This isn't cause for celebration, however -- it merely implies that we have a cushion until prices sink below 2009 levels. National quarterly price gains dropped 2.2 percentage points from last month, and in the wake of the homebuyer tax credit, analysts expect the downward trend to continue.
The first sign to confirm analysts' fears of an impending double-dip arrived with June's existing home sales report, which marked the lowest sales level for the month since 1999.
The findings are not entirely glum, however. On a micro-market level, several cities continue to post double-digit quarterly gains, albeit at a less pronounced rate than in previous months. One of the best positioned metro areas to withstand the impending double dip is Pittsburgh, which has only suffered a quarterly rate of decline of 2.8 percent since the housing crisis took hold in 2006.
Divergence in local market performance has varied greatly, said Alex Villacorta, a senior statistician for Clear Capital, in a recent press release.
"All of this points to the fact that recovery in the housing market will occur segment by segment in micro markets around the country," Villacorta said.
While all signs point to a double dip in home prices in 2011, some markets will clearly fare better than others. Check back with HousingWatch for a full rundown of the most – and least likely – metro areas to weather the storm.
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